Hans' News and Politics Blog

A Blog of Conservative News, Politics, and Foreign Affairs

Saturday, April 24, 2004

Another long break due to heavy work schedule.

I sat back and started contemplating how a Kerry presidency might unfold in regards to the war on terror, not a pleasant thought.

Jan '05: As Kerry promised the first thing he will do is go back to the UN, pleading for them to take over responsibility for Iraq. No one at the UN is interested in increasing its commitment. Russia has no interest in a stable Iraq that could increase oil production and cut into their profit margin. France demands oil concessions from Iraq, but is also perfectly happy to have us fail, since Chirac believes a weakened US will strengthen France. Germany makes it clear that they do not want to get involved no matter what, since the Schroeder government could hardly get a resolution through the legislature and they don't have any troops they can spare anyway. President Kerry returns from the UN empty handed.

Feb '05: Elections are held in Iraq and a government is formed. It is an uneasy coalition and still requires heavy involvement by the US to work.

Mar '05: President Kerry introduces a $60 billion bill to fund the operations in Iraq. Lawmakers balk at the cost and demand that he deliver the allies that he had promised during the campaign he would bring in to share the burden. Congress ask why they should give him the money to rebuild Iraq when President Kerry voted against giving President Bush the money for Iraq. Was it wrong to keep troops in Iraq in '04 but right in '05? Some lawmaker also recall Kerry's earlier statements calling the war in Iraq a 'mistake'. They are quoting a younger Kerry, testifying in front of the Senate: "How do you ask a man to be the last one to die for a mistake?" The Supplemental Appropriations bill for Iraq fails in Congress. A smaller bill, funding operations in Afghanistan passes.

Apr '05: US forces begin to withdraw from Iraq. Coalition partners start to withdraw as well. Blair is forced to resign from office.

May '05: Last US forces pull out of Iraq, under constant harassment fire by insurgents. Al Qaeda claims victory.

Jun '05: Shiite Islamic radicals topple government and announce establishment of Islamic Republic of Iraq. Iranian and Syrian influence is expected.

Jul '05: Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon form alliance.

Aug '05: AL Qaeda sets up several training camps in western Iraq. Starts heavy recruitment campaign.

Sep '05: Iran stops cooperating with the IAEA on nuclear inspections. President Kerry appeals to the UN to pass a resolution condemning Iran but the motion fails.

Oct '05: President Kerry signs a bilateral treaty with North Korea to freeze its nuclear program in return for money, oil, and 2 nuclear reactors as he had promised he'd do during the campaign.

Nov '05: PATRIOT Act expires. All Democrats and a few Republicans defeat a plan to extend it. President Kerry's campaign promise to repeal the act is thus fulfilled. Barriers to sharing intelligence are thus restored, and investigative tools removed.

Dec '05: Most detainees at Gitmo are released upon repeated complaints by European allies.

Jan '06: Iran tests nuclear weapon. Test-fires mid-range ballistic missile with enough range to reach Israel and Istanbul. Saudi Arabia announces they have acquired nuclear weapons from Pakistan to protect themselves from Iran.

Feb '06: UN is put in charge in Afghanistan.

Mar '06: North Korea detonates nuclear bomb, demands further concessions from the US, including US troop withdrawal from the Korean peninsula.

Apr '06: Musharraf is assassinated by Al Qaeda. His replacement as President of Pakistan sharply reduces his cooperation with the US.

Jun '06: Truck with nuclear bomb is detected by Israeli security forces attempting to enter the West Bank. Bomb is detonated before it can be disarmed. Over 100,000 dead, mostly Palestinians. Arab League denounces Israel for targeting Palestinian civilians with nuclear weapon. UN Security Council votes on bill condemning Israel, vetoed by US.

Jul '06: Airstrikes on Iran by Israel seek to dismantle Iranian nuclear program. Achieves only limited success. Israel pledges to wipe out Iran with massive nuclear strike if Iran makes threatening move. UN Security Council votes on bill condemning Israel, vetoed by US.

Sep '06: Al Qaeda donates chemical weapons in 6 large malls in the US simultaneously. Over 4,000 dead. Panic leads to the nearly complete shut down of the US economy. Amazon.com shares soar over 500 percent in a single day.

Oct '06: Congress, the media, and the public blame President for the deterioration of US security under his watch. The world has grown a lot less save under his watch. US foreign policy was paralyzed by placing too much emphasis on the UN and by trying a diplomatic and law enforcement approach to fighting nuclear proliferation and terrorism.

Nov '06: Democrats suffer major defeat in mid-term election, Republicans gain large majorities in both the House and the Senate.

Dec '06: President Kerry's popularity reaches historic lows. Broad public movement demanding his resignation or impeachment. Paralyzed by massive protests Kerry announces decision to resign.

Jan '07: President Bill Nelson sworn into office.

Scary scenario? Definitely, but everything here is entirely plausible. The next few years will place an increasing demand on taking aggressive stands on foreign policies. Wavering and deferring decision making are no longer luxuries we can afford. All of Kerry's decisions in this are based on promises and statements he has made during the campaign. Kerry might well abandon his positions as he has had no problem contradicting himself in the past when it was convenient, but it would be very hard to rally support for his sudden change in position. For example, he relentlessly attacked the PATRIOT act during the campaign and called to let it expire. He may very well change his mind once in office, but he would have a hard time convince others that he didn't really mean it when he denounced it.

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